7
Sir Crater
4yo Colt · 8-11
La Teste De Buch · Prix Du Haras Du Mazet Stakes · 6f 211y
#3
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | La Teste De Buch | 3 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Lyon-Parilly | 2 | 16th | 15th | +1 |
| 2026-04-27 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 2 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-03-23 | Mont De Marsan | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Toulouse | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-02 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 2 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength26%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 30/11/2025 | 11th | 3/1 | 84% | 9% | -0.75 |
| 28/12/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 55% | +0.39 |
| 02/02/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 01/03/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 23/03/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 27/04/2026 | 12th | 15/2 | 61% | 21% | -0.39 |
| 08/05/2026 | 16th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/06/2026 | 15th | 40/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |