4
Arden Mist
3yo Gelding · 9-5
La Teste De Buch · Prix Haras De La Commanderie Handicap · 6f 211y
#10
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 9.7 /10 (raw 8.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Deauville | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Deauville | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Chantilly | 1 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Chantilly | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength66%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/2025 | 13th | 22/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 06/12/2025 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 27/12/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 13/02/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 08/03/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/06/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/07/2026 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 15/08/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 10/09/2026 | 13th | 18/1 | 5% | 14% | +0.09 |