2
Spirito
3yo Gelding · 9-8
La Teste De Buch · Prix Haras De La Commanderie Handicap · 6f 211y
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
13%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Compiegne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Nancy | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Deauville | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength12%
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 10/01/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 07/02/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 38% | +0.32 |
| 04/04/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.37 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 10/05/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 11/06/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 31% | -0.22 |
| 10/09/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |