1
Mehmist
4yo Colt · 10-2
La Teste De Buch · Prix Du Haras Des Faunes · 5f 102y
#14
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Dax | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-06-26 | La Teste De Buch | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Toulouse | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Salon-De-Provence | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-13 | Pau | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2025 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 25% | -0.30 |
| 30/11/2025 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 23/12/2025 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |
| 13/01/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 16/04/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 08/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 90% | +0.43 |
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 56% | -0.10 |
| 17/07/2026 | 10th | 17/2 | 55% | 0% | -0.55 |