14
Paint Chop
4yo Gelding · 8-6
La Teste De Buch · Prix Du Haras Des Faunes · 5f 102y
#10
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | La Teste De Buch | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | La Teste De Buch | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | La Teste De Buch | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-09-06 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-08-07 | Deauville | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-07-19 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength99%
Delivery trend +6.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/2025 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 44% | -0.44 |
| 15/05/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 11/06/2025 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 10% | -0.16 |
| 19/07/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 07/08/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 06/09/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 15/07/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 05/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 82% | +0.24 |