8
Fregate
4yo Filly · 9-1
La Teste De Buch · Prix Haras Des Petits Champs Handicap · 7f 209y
#14
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.9
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Tarbes | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Mont De Marsan | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-04-01 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-24 | Mont De Marsan | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1550% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength88%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |
| 01/04/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 16/04/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 91% | +0.33 |
| 29/08/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 62% | -0.20 |