13
Montigny
7yo Gelding · 8-8
La Teste De Buch · Prix Haras Des Petits Champs Handicap · 7f 209y
#5
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲6
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 13.2 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C10.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -6.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | La Teste De Buch | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | La Teste De Buch | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | La Teste De Buch | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Toulouse | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 40 | 3rd | 46th | −36 |
| 2026-04-11 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1571% of fieldRange 7-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength31%
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/2026 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 27/01/2026 | 13th | 11/1 | 42% | 20% | -0.22 |
| 12/03/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 79% | +0.26 |
| 11/04/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 62% | +0.09 |
| 27/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 85% | +0.32 |
| 21/05/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 53% | +0.06 |
| 03/06/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 15/07/2026 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 40% | -0.02 |
| 10/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |