13
Charm King
9yo Gelding · 9-1
La Teste De Buch · Px Du C. Des Partenaires De L'hipp. De La Teste-h. De La Petite Brunie Handicap · 7f 209y
#2
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
25%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Toulouse | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | La Teste De Buch | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Dax | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Dax | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Dax | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Dax | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1593% of fieldRange 1-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength44%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/2026 | 15th | 11/1 | 42% | 7% | -0.35 |
| 01/04/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 27/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 29/06/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 82% | +0.08 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 26/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 87% | +0.50 |
| 16/09/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |