14
Lady Darka
5yo Filly · 9-1
La Teste De Buch · Px Du C. Des Partenaires De L'hipp. De La Teste-h. De La Petite Brunie Handicap · 7f 209y
#11
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | La Teste De Buch | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | La Teste De Buch | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | La Teste De Buch | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Dax | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | La Teste De Buch | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Pau | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1514% of fieldRange 10-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/11/2025 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 20/12/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 09/01/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 20/02/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 21/03/2026 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 01/05/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 62% | -0.07 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 05/08/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 26/08/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |