12
Yacht Show
4yo Gelding · 9-4
La Teste De Buch · Px Du C. Des Partenaires De L'hipp. De La Teste-h. De La Petite Brunie Handicap · 7f 209y
#12
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.9
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | La Teste De Buch | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Mont De Marsan | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-01 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Dax | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-20 | Pau | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-01-28 | Pau | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1529% of fieldRange 7-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength36%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/11/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 28/12/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 73% | +0.15 |
| 13/01/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 90% | +0.06 |
| 28/01/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 57% | +0.02 |
| 20/02/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 18/05/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 85% | +0.24 |
| 01/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 10/08/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 33% | -0.09 |