3
Karnac D'alci
6yo Gelding · 0-0
Laval · Prix Speedy Blue - Attele · 1m 5f 38y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
41%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Meslay Du Maine | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-09 | Vincennes | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Enghien | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-17 | Vincennes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-16 | Nantes | 6 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-11-10 | Reims | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength61%
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/2025 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 73% | +0.31 |
| 11/10/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 26/10/2025 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 10/11/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 85% | +0.69 |
| 16/01/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 93% | +0.33 |
| 17/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 93% | +0.51 |
| 13/03/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 09/06/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 36% | -0.17 |
| 15/08/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |