4
Nelson D'ariane
3yo Gelding · 9-6
Laval · Prix Scipion Du Goutier - Monte · 1m 6f 36y
#17
Rank
Odds
45/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#17
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength16%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Les Sables | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-21 | Cabourg | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-27 | Caen | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1829% of fieldRange 10-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength47%
Delivery trend -8.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 21/08/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |