17
Noble Du Surf
3yo Gelding · 9-6
Laval · Prix Scipion Du Goutier - Monte · 1m 6f 36y
#18
Rank
Odds
60/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#18
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength33%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Pornichet | 5 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Meslay Du Maine | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Laval | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Meslay Du Maine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Cordemais | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-24 | Maure De Bretagne | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 186% of fieldRange 11-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength21%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 17th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 15/02/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 92% | +0.44 |
| 26/02/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 56% | -0.08 |
| 24/03/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 43% | +0.38 |
| 15/04/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 04/05/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 03/06/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 15/08/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 19/09/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |