11
Nostalgia Quick
3yo Filly · 9-2
Laval · Prix Scipion Du Goutier - Monte · 1m 6f 36y
#14
Rank
Odds
55/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength15%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Cabourg | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Enghien | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-07-29 | Enghien | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Cabourg | 5 | +1 | ||
| 2026-07-17 | Cabourg | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Caen | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1841% of fieldRange 5-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength55%
Delivery trend +3.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/03/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 17/07/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 29/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 13/08/2026 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 01/09/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |