1
Al Arrivee
6yo Mare · 11-7
Listowel · Buckley Agri New Holland Irish EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle · 2m
#1
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
93%
Place Prob
78%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼4
Strength17%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 2.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.3
Today:
Class gap: +3.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Punchestown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Punchestown | 1 | 4th | -5th | +7 |
| 2025-08-03 | Galway | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-06-10 | Sligo | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-10-27 | Galway | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 18100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/2024 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 10/06/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 03/08/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 29/07/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |