16

Breeze Of Tobruk

4yo Filly · 11-5

Listowel · Buckley Agri New Holland Irish EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle · 2m

#17

Rank

Odds

200/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#17

Timeform

Commentary

Little encouragement in 3 maiden hurdles. Has left Turlough O'Connor and is fitted with a first-time hood.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 9.5 /10 (raw 9.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Cork 05/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR - · 2m70y Yie 1545/04C8C8 @ Limerick 16/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR - · 2m5f100y Sft 15116/04C8projClass-projected finish: 11th of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-09Killarney?0
2026-04-16Limerick?10th10th0
2026-04-05Cork?9th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0416/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 180% of fieldRange 18-18 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength0%

Delivery trend -32.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 18th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/04/20269th150/10%43%+0.43
16/04/202610th500/10%10%+0.10