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Calamint

6yo Mare · 11-7

Listowel · Buckley Agri New Holland Irish EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle · 2m

#9

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Was never involved when fifth of 11 on hurdling debut at Kilbeggan in August. Modest winner on Flat. Finished in mid-field in 21-runner handicap at Navan (1¼m, good) 19 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength98%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 6.8)

Highest class: BHA50
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: +2.4
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA60 @ Curragh 16/08/2025 · Pos 19th of 21 · OR 60 · 1m Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/08/2025 · OR 60 par16/0860OR 60BHA57 @ Roscommon 13/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 57 · 1m4f46y Sft 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/10/2025 · OR 57 parC7 @ Dundalk 29/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 56 · 1m Std 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/10/2025 · OR 56 par29/10C7OR 56BHA53 @ Dundalk 14/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 53 · 1m4f Std 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/11/2025 · OR 53 parBHA50 @ Navan 30/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 50 · 1m2f Hvy 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/03/2026 · OR 50 par30/0350OR 50BHA51 @ Limerick 25/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 51 · 1m3f190y Yie 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 51 parBHA51 @ Ballinrobe 08/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 51 · 1m1f133y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 51 par8/0551OR 51C8 @ Kilbeggan 08/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 2m Gd 159BHA50 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 21 · OR 50 · 1m2f10y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 50 par5/0950OR 50projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05NavanBHA5011th7th+3
2026-08-08Kilbeggan?5th5th0
2026-05-08BallinrobeBHA513rd0th+3
2026-04-25LimerickBHA518th5th+3
2026-03-30NavanBHA502nd-2th+3
2025-11-14DundalkBHA536th3rd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0814/118/055/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1859% of fieldRange 7-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength14%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/08/202519th14/126%10%-0.16
13/10/20254th28/10%80%+0.80
29/10/20257th20/10%54%+0.54
14/11/20256th11/271%58%-0.13
30/03/20262nd4/179%92%+0.13
25/04/20268th11/486%53%-0.32
08/05/20263rd15/261%85%+0.24
08/08/20265th25/10%60%+0.60
05/09/202611th10/147%50%+0.03