3
Certosa
5yo Mare · 11-7 · OR 98
Listowel · Buckley Agri New Holland Irish EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle · 2m
#10
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Ballinrobe | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Killarney | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ballinrobe | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-28 | Limerick | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Cork | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Thurles | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1871% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength93%
Delivery trend +6.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2025 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 24/10/2025 | 8th | 125/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 13/12/2025 | 6th | 200/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 19/02/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 19/03/2026 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 25% | +0.20 |
| 28/05/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 80/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 11/09/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |