6
Lennon Grove
5yo Mare · 11-7
Listowel · Buckley Agri New Holland Irish EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle · 2m
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼7
Strength85%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 8 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.6
Today:
Class gap: +7.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | Aintree | 1 | 2nd | -7th | +8 |
| 2026-03-07 | Sandown | 1 | 3rd | -6th | +7 |
| 2025-12-20 | Thurles | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Thurles | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Listowel | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1894% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +9.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 73% | -0.12 |
| 30/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 20/12/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 07/03/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 78% | +0.20 |
| 09/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 95% | +0.32 |