13

Super Freak

5yo Mare · 11-7

Listowel · Buckley Agri New Holland Irish EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle · 2m

#14

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Failed to build on bumper debut effort. Cheekpieces on for first time, shaped with some encouragement when sixth of 16 in novice (25/1) at Navan (19f, good to soft) on hurdles bow 5 days ago. May be one for handicaps.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 7.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Galway 28/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 19 · OR - · 2m130y Gd 15728/07C?C0 @ Killarney 16/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR - · 2m1f Goo 16116/07C?C0 @ Tramore 16/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 2m140y Goo 16516/08C?C8 @ Navan 19/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR - · 2m3f Goo 15919/09C8projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Navan?6th6th0
2026-08-16Tramore?9th9th0
2026-07-16Killarney?10th10th0
2025-07-28Galway?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0716/0716/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1847% of fieldRange 1-18 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength31%

Delivery trend +3.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/07/20256th100/10%72%+0.72
16/07/202610th10/382%36%-0.47
16/08/20269th14/126%27%+0.01
19/09/20266th25/10%67%+0.67