12

Bethpage Theatre

5yo Mare · 11-5 · OR 79

Listowel · Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction & Median Maiden Hurdle · 2m

#13

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

Timeform

Commentary

Well held on completed starts in maiden hurdles and makes limited appeal.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 7.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Listowel 01/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR - · 2m Yie 1611/06C8C8 @ Punchestown 06/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 22 · OR - · 2m100y Goo 1596/06C8projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-13Downpatrick?0
2026-06-06Punchestown?6th6th0
2026-06-01Listowel?9th9th0
2026-05-10Cork?0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/066/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1660% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%

Delivery trend +42.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/06/20269th150/10%33%+0.33
06/06/20266th80/10%76%+0.76