13
Carleys Lilly
5yo Mare · 11-5 · OR 92
Listowel · Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction & Median Maiden Hurdle · 2m
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Ballinrobe | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Sligo | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Sligo | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Sligo | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Limerick | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Clonmel | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1640% of fieldRange 1-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength40%
Delivery trend -9.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/2026 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 28/05/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 63% | -0.01 |
| 11/09/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |