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Of Land And Sea

5yo Gelding · 11-12

Listowel · Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction & Median Maiden Hurdle · 2m

#5

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Crystal Ocean gelding who made it third time lucky in bumpers when seeing off 6 rivals at Limerick (heavy) last season. Stiff tasks at Cheltenham and Punchestown on next 2 starts but ought to prove at least as effective over hurdles if ready to go on the back of a 5-month break.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼8
Strength25%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Dropping 8 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 8.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.2
Today:
Class gap: +7.8
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Thurles 30/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 1m7f150y Goo 16730/10C?C0 @ Naas 15/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR - · 2m Hvy 16815/12C?C0 @ Limerick 10/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 1m7f150y Hvy 16810/02C?1 @ Cheltenham 11/03/2026 · Pos 21st of 21 · OR - · 2m87y Gd 161 · HIGHER CLASS11/0311 @ Punchestown 29/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 119 · 2m132y Yie 168 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/04/2026 · OR 119 par29/041OR 119projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-29Punchestown110th1st+8
2026-03-11Cheltenham121th12th+8
2026-02-10Limerick?1st1st0
2025-12-15Naas?5th5th0
2025-10-30Thurles?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/1015/1210/0211/0329/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1687% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength70%

Delivery trend -2.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/10/20254th7/163%67%+0.04
15/12/20255th17/255%71%+0.16
10/02/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
11/03/202621st150/10%0%0.00
29/04/202610th66/10%0%0.00