Adrienne
4yo Filly · 11-4 · OR 125
Listowel · Listowel Races Supporters Club Lartigue Hurdle (Handicap) In Memory Of John Molyneaux (Listed) · 2m
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Punchestown | BHA70 | 13th | 20th | −6 |
| 2026-04-30 | Punchestown | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Fairyhouse | 1 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Naas | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | +0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Leopardstown | 1 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Leopardstown | 1 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 71% | +0.29 |
| 04/11/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 30/11/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 26/12/2025 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 01/02/2026 | 13th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.14 |
| 22/02/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 06/04/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 30/04/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 15/09/2026 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 8% | -0.19 |