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Beauvallon

4yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 133

Listowel · Listowel Races Supporters Club Lartigue Hurdle (Handicap) In Memory Of John Molyneaux (Listed) · 2m

#8

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#8

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Impressive when following up his Limerick victory at the Punchestown Festival. Too keen behind Mino Des Mottes prior to getting back on track when 4 lengths fifth (short of room briefly) in the Galway Hurdle last time. Expected to go well for last year's winning connections.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲5
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.1
Today: 1
Class gap: -5.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ ParisLongchamp 06/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 1m2f96y GS 1286/04C5C5 @ Nantes 03/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 7f209y Gd 128C5 @ Compiegne 24/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 7f209y Hvy 12824/07C5C5 @ Deauville 23/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 7f100y GS 123C8 @ Thurles 29/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 1m7f179y Hvy 15329/01C8C8 @ Limerick 31/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 2m Sft 161C8 @ Punchestown 30/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 2m90y Yie 15830/04C8C8 @ Bellewstown 04/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 133 · 2m1f40y Gd 164 · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 133 par1 @ Galway 30/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 20 · OR 132 · 2m11y Gd 141 · below its mark30/07/2026 · OR 132 par30/071OR 132projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-30Galway15th5th0
2026-07-04Bellewstown?2nd10th−7
2026-04-30Punchestown?1st9th−7
2026-03-31Limerick?1st9th−7
2026-01-29Thurles?5th13th−7
2025-08-23Deauville?8th12th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0423/0830/0430/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +14.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/04/20256th9/276%29%-0.48
03/07/20254th9/488%67%-0.21
24/07/20257th10/147%14%-0.33
23/08/20258th6/168%22%-0.46
29/01/20265th12/137%64%+0.27
31/03/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
30/04/20261st28/10%100%+1.00
04/07/20262nd8/1196%83%-0.13
30/07/20265th33/10%79%+0.79