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Combs

4yo Gelding · 10-11 · OR 118

Listowel · Listowel Races Supporters Club Lartigue Hurdle (Handicap) In Memory Of John Molyneaux (Listed) · 2m

#2

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly useful sort ran a cracker when third in listed handicap at Limerick in December. Back on song to smoothly open his account in a Kilbeggan maiden on return and looks to have a solid chance at the weights back in handicap company.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲6
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 12.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -6.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Tipperary 24/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m4f100y Yie 13424/04C8C0 @ Down Royal 29/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 2m1f87y Goo 152C8 @ Gowran Park 04/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 2m60y Yie 1544/10C8C8 @ Punchestown 22/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 2m160y Sft 1541 @ Limerick 29/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 113 · 2m Sft 140 · beat its mark29/12/2025 · OR 113 par29/121OR 113BHA120 @ Fairyhouse 14/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 120 · 2m Yie 154 · below its mark14/01/2026 · OR 120 parC8 @ Down Royal 17/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 19 · OR 120 · 2m1f105y Yie 156 · below its mark17/03/2026 · OR 120 par17/03C8OR 120C8 @ Fairyhouse 06/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 21 · OR 118 · 2m Yie 156 · below its mark06/04/2026 · OR 118 parC8 @ Kilbeggan 03/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 116 · 2m Goo 164 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 116 par3/09C8OR 116projClass-projected finish: 6th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Kilbeggan?1st9th−7
2026-04-06Fairyhouse?9th17th−7
2026-03-17Down Royal?6th14th−7
2026-01-14FairyhouseBHA1204th17th−11
2025-12-29Limerick13rd3rd0
2025-11-22Punchestown?3rd11th−7

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0422/1117/033/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength79%

Delivery trend +0.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/04/20251st11/142%100%+0.58
29/08/20252nd7/282%83%+0.02
04/10/20253rd6/492%82%-0.10
22/11/20253rd5/174%83%+0.10
29/12/20253rd12/137%82%+0.45
14/01/20264th11/142%57%+0.15
17/03/20266th5/174%72%-0.01
06/04/20269th20/10%60%+0.60
03/09/20261st2/189%100%+0.11