4
Hopes Are High
4yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 125
Listowel · Listowel Races Supporters Club Lartigue Hurdle (Handicap) In Memory Of John Molyneaux (Listed) · 2m
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
89%
Place Prob
53%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲9
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: BHA76
Recent avg: C9.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -8.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kilbeggan | BHA124 | 3rd | 17th | −11 |
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | ? | 6th | 14th | −7 |
| 2025-10-14 | Punchestown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-21 | Listowel | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-29 | Down Royal | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-11 | Ballinrobe | ? | 1st | 9th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength81%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/05/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 79% | +0.42 |
| 16/05/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 81% | -0.01 |
| 27/06/2025 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 21% | +0.06 |
| 11/08/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 29/08/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 21/09/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 14/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 29/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |