Kai Lung
4yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 126
Listowel · Listowel Races Supporters Club Lartigue Hurdle (Handicap) In Memory Of John Molyneaux (Listed) · 2m
#10
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 14.2 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Curragh | BHA79 | 10th | 18th | −7 |
| 2026-07-30 | Galway | 1 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | BHA83 | 8th | 17th | −7 |
| 2026-05-26 | Ballinrobe | BHA127 | 3rd | 17th | −12 |
| 2026-05-02 | Punchestown | 1 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-04-06 | Fairyhouse | 1 | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 93% | +0.00 |
| 19/04/2025 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 05/06/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 25/01/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 02/05/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 26/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 28/07/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 30/07/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 47% | +0.21 |
| 13/09/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |