9
O'grady Cracker
4yo Gelding · 10-10 · OR 117
Listowel · Listowel Races Supporters Club Lartigue Hurdle (Handicap) In Memory Of John Molyneaux (Listed) · 2m
#11
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲9
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 15.3 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -8.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Ballinrobe | BHA117 | 5th | 18th | −11 |
| 2026-08-03 | Cork | BHA104 | 1st | 12th | −9 |
| 2026-07-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA94 | 1st | 11th | −8 |
| 2026-04-14 | Clonmel | BHA97 | 14th | 24th | −9 |
| 2026-01-29 | Thurles | ? | 10th | 18th | −7 |
| 2025-12-29 | Leopardstown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 3-14 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength7%
Delivery trend -5.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/12/2025 | 9th | 2/1 | 89% | 38% | -0.51 |
| 29/12/2025 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 29/01/2026 | 10th | 100/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 14/04/2026 | 14th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 24/08/2026 | 5th | 6/5 | 94% | 0% | -0.94 |