14
Rare Times
4yo Filly · 10-0 · OR 103
Listowel · Listowel Races Supporters Club Lartigue Hurdle (Handicap) In Memory Of John Molyneaux (Listed) · 2m
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲8
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.9 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -7.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Down Royal | ? | 1st | 9th | −7 |
| 2026-08-14 | Tramore | BHA92 | 2nd | 12th | −8 |
| 2026-07-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA93 | 3rd | 13th | −8 |
| 2026-05-08 | Downpatrick | ? | 5th | 13th | −7 |
| 2025-11-13 | Punchestown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-12 | Cork | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 13/11/2025 | 7th | 85/40 | 89% | 54% | -0.35 |
| 08/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 69% | +0.32 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 87% | +0.50 |
| 14/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 28/08/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |