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Royal Belief

4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 105

Listowel · Listowel Races Supporters Club Lartigue Hurdle (Handicap) In Memory Of John Molyneaux (Listed) · 2m

#12

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed much-improved form to get off the mark in a Limerick maiden in March. Backed that up with a career-best second on the Flat at Gowran the following month. Daniel King takes over from out of the weights on handicap bow, and he could hit the frame if resuming progress back hurdling.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲6
Strength13%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 13.8 /10 (raw 7.9)

Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C7.1
Today: 1
Class gap: -6.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Fairyhouse 06/06/2025 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR - · 7f Gd 1346/06C8C8 @ Curragh 27/06/2025 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 1m Goo 134BHA55 @ Listowel 22/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 55 · 1m3f15y Hvy 125 · beat its mark22/09/2025 · OR 55 par22/0955OR 55BHA55 @ Roscommon 13/10/2025 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 55 · 1m4f46y Sft 131 · beat its mark13/10/2025 · OR 55 parC8 @ Limerick 26/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 2m Hvy 15426/12C8C8 @ Punchestown 12/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR - · 2m35y Sft 161C8 @ Punchestown 04/02/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR - · 2m Sft 1544/02C8C8 @ Limerick 31/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 97 · 2m Sft 156 · beat its mark31/03/2026 · OR 97 parBHA52 @ Gowran Park 22/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 52 · 1m5f160y Sft 134 · beat its mark22/04/2026 · OR 52 par22/0452OR 52projClass-projected finish: 7th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-22Gowran ParkBHA522nd7th−4
2026-03-31Limerick?1st9th−7
2026-02-04Punchestown?10th18th−7
2026-01-12Punchestown?9th17th−7
2025-12-26Limerick?5th13th−7
2025-10-13RoscommonBHA5512th17th−5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0613/104/0222/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength46%

Delivery trend +1.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/06/202512th33/10%27%+0.27
27/06/202512th80/10%15%+0.15
22/09/20255th10/147%67%+0.19
13/10/202512th10/147%27%-0.21
26/12/20255th125/10%60%+0.60
12/01/20269th200/10%43%+0.43
04/02/202610th150/10%36%+0.36
31/03/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
22/04/20262nd3/184%92%+0.07