15
Ahellofaman
4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 85
Listowel · Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle · 2m
#14
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Wexford | BHA85 | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA87 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Plumpton | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Limerick | BHA91 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-02 | Leopardstown | ? | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Fairyhouse | BHA93 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 157% of fieldRange 4-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength41%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11/2025 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 13/11/2025 | 6th | 200/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/12/2025 | 9th | 250/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 26/01/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 21/02/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 02/03/2026 | 15th | 14/1 | 26% | 18% | -0.09 |
| 12/03/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 05/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 24/04/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |