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2

Churchwarden

6yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 108

Listowel · Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle · 2m

#2

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Comfortably opened his account on the Flat in first-time blinkers in July before running up to his best in this sphere when 2¼ lengths second of 6 to Rightfolksplease in handicap at Tramore following month. Has run well back on the Flat since and claims if still in same form.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Ayr 07/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 67 · 1m5f26y Goo 141 · beat its mark07/07/2025 · OR 67 par7/075OR 67BHA65 @ Galway 01/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 65 · 1m6f14y Yie 135 · below its mark01/08/2025 · OR 65 parBHA64 @ Galway 09/09/2025 · Pos 15th of 18 · OR 64 · 1m4f Sft 134 · below its mark09/09/2025 · OR 64 par9/0964OR 646 @ Ayr 30/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 63 · 1m7f Sft 141 · beat its mark30/09/2025 · OR 63 parBHA61 @ Roscommon 11/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 61 · 1m4f46y Gd 131 · below its mark11/05/2026 · OR 61 par11/0561OR 61BHA109 @ Clonmel 05/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR 109 · 2m3f61y Goo 166 · below its mark05/06/2026 · OR 109 parBHA60 @ Tramore 07/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 60 · 1m4f Goo 144 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 60 par7/0760OR 60BHA108 @ Tramore 13/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 108 · 2m Gd 166 · below its mark13/08/2026 · OR 108 parBHA72 @ Tramore 15/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 72 · 1m4f Goo 136 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 72 par15/0872OR 72projClass-projected finish: 6th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15TramoreBHA723rd3rd0
2026-08-13TramoreBHA1082nd2nd0
2026-07-07TramoreBHA601st1st0
2026-06-05ClonmelBHA10911th11th0
2026-05-11RoscommonBHA6110th10th0
2025-09-30Ayr66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0730/097/0715/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1586% of fieldRange 2-13 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength55%

Delivery trend -8.3% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 3rd of 15. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/07/20254th18/15%70%+0.65
01/08/20257th40/10%60%+0.60
09/09/202515th18/15%18%+0.12
30/09/20256th15/261%38%-0.23
11/05/202610th9/276%31%-0.46
05/06/202611th20/10%33%+0.33
07/07/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
13/08/20262nd6/492%80%-0.12
15/08/20263rd2/189%67%-0.23