12
Dream Shaper
7yo Gelding · 10-7 · OR 91
Listowel · Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle · 2m
#13
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 7.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Sligo | BHA91 | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-02 | Galway | BHA91 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA82 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Sligo | BHA81 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Limerick | BHA84 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Cork | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1557% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07/2025 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 07/08/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 08/09/2025 | 12th | 10/1 | 47% | 35% | -0.12 |
| 03/10/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 14/10/2025 | 17th | 50/1 | 0% | 16% | +0.16 |
| 22/03/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 02/08/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.30 |