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13

Kilbrin Rocco

7yo Gelding · 10-6 · OR 90

Listowel · Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle · 2m

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual winner over fences last season, including at Tramore in April. Runner-up here the following month and possibly needed the outing when down the field at Galway in July. Potentially very well treated now reverting to hurdles for yard that target this meeting and won this race in 2025.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 7.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA90 @ Clonmel 23/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 90 · 2m4f219y Goo 159 · below its mark23/10/2025 · OR 90 par23/1090OR 90BHA90 @ Clonmel 06/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 90 · 2m1f50y Sft 158 · below its mark06/11/2025 · OR 90 parBHA90 @ Limerick 26/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 90 · 2m1f130y Sft 146 · below its mark26/12/2025 · OR 90 par26/1290OR 90BHA93 @ Clonmel 08/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 93 · 2m Hvy 151 · beat its mark08/01/2026 · OR 93 parBHA100 @ Thurles 05/02/2026 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 100 · 2m2f Sft 156 · below its mark05/02/2026 · OR 100 par5/02100OR 100C8 @ Limerick 12/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 100 · 2m1f185y Hvy 149 · below its mark12/03/2026 · OR 100 parC8 @ Tramore 19/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 99 · 1m7f110y Yie 148 · beat its mark19/04/2026 · OR 99 par19/04C8OR 99BHA103 @ Wexford 07/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 103 · 2m Goo 143 · below its mark07/05/2026 · OR 103 parBHA105 @ Galway 28/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 20 · OR 105 · 2m2f54y Gd 161 · below its mark28/07/2026 · OR 105 par28/07105OR 105projClass-projected finish: 4th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-28GalwayBHA1059th9th0
2026-05-07WexfordBHA1032nd2nd0
2026-04-19Tramore?1st1st0
2026-03-12Limerick?5th5th0
2026-02-05ThurlesBHA10010th10th0
2026-01-08ClonmelBHA931st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/108/0119/0428/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1579% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength77%

Delivery trend +2.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/10/20255th11/142%69%+0.27
06/11/20255th8/158%73%+0.15
26/12/20252nd9/153%92%+0.40
08/01/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
05/02/202610th11/271%40%-0.31
12/03/20265th11/142%43%+0.01
19/04/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
07/05/20262nd13/266%89%+0.23
28/07/20269th25/10%58%+0.58