8
Kilt
5yo Gelding · 10-13 · OR 97
Listowel · Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle · 2m
#10
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C9.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Down Royal | BHA98 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Cork | BHA98 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Killarney | BHA98 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Wexford | BHA98 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Wexford | BHA89 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Cork | BHA90 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1543% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength59%
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2025 | 8th | 125/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 27/11/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 13/12/2025 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 65% | +0.65 |
| 06/04/2026 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 42% | +0.26 |
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 03/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 77% | +0.30 |
| 16/07/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 03/08/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 28/08/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 62% | +0.04 |