7
Mc Swagger
5yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 100
Listowel · Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle · 2m
#12
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 8.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Killarney | BHA102 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Sligo | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Listowel | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Killarney | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-18 | Bellewstown | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Thurles | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 150% of fieldRange 10-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -11.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2025 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 30/10/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 78% | +0.12 |
| 18/04/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 30/05/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 09/06/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 16/07/2026 | 14th | 12/1 | 37% | 7% | -0.30 |