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3

Metamorpheus

7yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 108

Listowel · Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle · 2m

#4

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Enjoying a resurgence for current yard, finding only a single rival too good on 3 of his last 4 starts, chasing home Gino Bella in 11-runner event at Cork on latest after just 2 days off. Up 5 lb now and should continue to give a good account, but others preferred.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA104 @ Limerick 27/12/2025 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 104 · 2m Hvy 161 · below its mark27/12/2025 · OR 104 par27/12104OR 104BHA102 @ Punchestown 12/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 102 · 2m35y Sft 164 · below its mark12/01/2026 · OR 102 parBHA99 @ Downpatrick 29/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 99 · 2m1f165y Yie 155 · below its mark29/03/2026 · OR 99 par29/0399OR 99BHA51 @ Sligo 03/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 51 · 1m2f158y Sft 133 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 51 parBHA100 @ Kilbeggan 15/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 100 · 1m7f153y Goo 156 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 100 par15/05100OR 100BHA103 @ Downpatrick 14/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 103 · 2m1f165y Gd 143 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 103 parBHA55 @ Limerick 11/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 55 · 1m4f65y Gd 137 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 55 par11/0755OR 55BHA103 @ Galway 01/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 20 · OR 103 · 2m175y Goo 140 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 103 parBHA103 @ Cork 03/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 103 · 2m1f Goo 153 · below its mark03/08/2026 · OR 103 par3/08103OR 103projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-03CorkBHA1032nd2nd0
2026-08-01GalwayBHA1032nd2nd0
2026-07-11LimerickBHA554th4th0
2026-06-14DownpatrickBHA1034th4th0
2026-05-15KilbegganBHA1002nd2nd0
2026-05-03SligoBHA511st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/123/0511/073/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1593% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend -0.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/12/202513th33/10%0%0.00
12/01/20268th28/10%13%+0.13
29/03/20263rd20/10%78%+0.78
03/05/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
15/05/20262nd10/147%92%+0.45
14/06/20264th11/271%67%-0.04
11/07/20264th6/168%73%+0.04
01/08/20262nd12/137%95%+0.58
03/08/20262nd10/382%90%+0.08