14
Sayitfirst
10yo Mare · 10-2 · OR 86
Listowel · Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle · 2m
#6
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Ballinrobe | BHA98 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ballinrobe | BHA87 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Cork | 1 | 0 | ||
| 2025-11-20 | Thurles | BHA101 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-31 | Down Royal | BHA99 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Tramore | BHA97 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1536% of fieldRange 7-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength25%
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2025 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 29/08/2025 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 15% | -0.21 |
| 12/09/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.37 |
| 01/10/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 09/10/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 31/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 91% | +0.44 |
| 20/11/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 10/08/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 11/09/2026 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 40% | -0.02 |