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9

Superficial

4yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 98

Listowel · Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle · 2m

#11

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★ Timeform

Commentary

Recent Flat efforts are uninspiring, but he did show improvement in that sphere in the spring, landing a handicap at Roscommon in May from a next-time-out winner. Little impact in a trio of maiden hurdles, though, and needs to both bounce back and brush up his jumping if he's to do better.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 9.7 /10 (raw 7.4)

Highest class: BHA67
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Punchestown 14/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 2m46y Goo 15214/10C?C8 @ Fairyhouse 13/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 2m Sft 154BHA68 @ Bellewstown 11/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 68 · 1m3f90y Sft 138 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 68 par11/0468OR 68BHA74 @ Ballinrobe 08/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 74 · 1m4f183y Goo 134 · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 74 parBHA74 @ Roscommon 18/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 74 · 1m4f17y Yie 134 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 74 par18/0574OR 74C8 @ Punchestown 06/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 22 · OR - · 2m100y Goo 161BHA80 @ Galway 01/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 80 · 1m3f180y Yie 140 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 80 par1/0880OR 80BHA80 @ Roscommon 31/08/2026 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR 80 · 1m4f17y Goo 140 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 80 parBHA79 @ Listowel 21/09/2026 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR 79 · 1m4f Yie 123 · below its mark21/09/2026 · OR 79 par21/0979OR 79projClass-projected finish: 15th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21ListowelBHA7915th15th0
2026-08-31RoscommonBHA8014th14th0
2026-08-01GalwayBHA8012th12th0
2026-06-06Punchestown?10th10th0
2026-05-18RoscommonBHA741st1st0
2026-05-08BallinrobeBHA746th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/108/051/0821/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1514% of fieldRange 10-15 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%

Delivery trend -1.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/10/20257th7/163%14%-0.49
13/12/20258th25/10%36%+0.36
11/04/20262nd10/147%91%+0.44
08/05/20266th5/174%62%-0.12
18/05/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
06/06/202610th4/179%57%-0.22
01/08/202612th6/168%27%-0.42
31/08/202614th33/10%7%+0.07
21/09/202615th40/10%0%0.00