20
Aurea Fortuna
7yo Gelding · 10-13 · OR 107
Listowel · Behans Horseshoe Bar, Restaurant & Townhouse Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f
#18
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#18
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C9.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | Punchestown | BHA110 | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-04 | Fairyhouse | BHA106 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-12-29 | Leopardstown | BHA106 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Cheltenham | 3 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-10-15 | Punchestown | BHA96 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Navan | BHA110 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish21st of 210% of fieldRange 20-21 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 21st of 21. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2024 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 91% | +0.36 |
| 06/04/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 10/05/2025 | 7th | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 03/08/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 20/09/2025 | 3rd | 16/5 | 83% | 87% | +0.04 |
| 15/10/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 15/11/2025 | 12th | 3/1 | 84% | 27% | -0.58 |
| 29/12/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 04/04/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |