1
Carrigg Island
6yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 122
Listowel · Behans Horseshoe Bar, Restaurant & Townhouse Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-18 | Limerick | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Listowel | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-07-31 | Galway | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-06-06 | Clonmel | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-05-12 | Killarney | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-04-10 | Limerick | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 2155% of fieldRange 11-21 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -19.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 21. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2025 | 1st | 66/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 12/05/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/06/2025 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 31/07/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 27/09/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 18/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |