14
Cozone
9yo Gelding · 11-1 · OR 109
Listowel · Behans Horseshoe Bar, Restaurant & Townhouse Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f
#12
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 7.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Down Royal | BHA70 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Downpatrick | BHA109 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Downpatrick | BHA101 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Limerick | BHA100 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Down Royal | BHA100 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Downpatrick | BHA90 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 2145% of fieldRange 10-21 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength22%
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 21. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/01/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 24/02/2025 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 08/03/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 29/03/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 12/04/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 72% | -0.01 |
| 28/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 31/08/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 56% | -0.21 |
| 04/09/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |