4
Ehteyat
7yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 118
Listowel · Behans Horseshoe Bar, Restaurant & Townhouse Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f
#21
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#21
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Ballinrobe | BHA121 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Leopardstown | BHA78 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Down Royal | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-10 | Aintree | 2 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2026-03-17 | Down Royal | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-02 | Leopardstown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 2115% of fieldRange 8-21 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength19%
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 18th of 21. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 87% | +0.50 |
| 19/12/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 54% | -0.04 |
| 29/01/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 11/02/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 02/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 93% | +0.20 |
| 17/03/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 10/04/2026 | 16th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 20/08/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/09/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |