IvyArcIvyArc
6

First Ascent

5yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 114

Listowel · Behans Horseshoe Bar, Restaurant & Townhouse Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f

#1

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

82%

Place Prob

57%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Continued a theme of run-to-run progression in maiden hurdles when winning 11-runner event at Kilbeggan by 14 lengths from Blue Johnl. Open to improvement now tackling a handicap, with the step up in trip expected to suit. One to consider.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength14%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: BHA78
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Roscommon 19/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR - · 1m2f63y Gd 14719/05C8C8 @ Down Royal 30/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m2f109y Gd 135C8 @ Down Royal 21/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 78 · 1m4f207y Gd 135 · below its mark21/06/2025 · OR 78 par21/06C8OR 78BHA78 @ Galway 02/08/2025 · Pos 14th of 18 · OR 78 · 1m3f180y Yie 139 · below its mark02/08/2025 · OR 78 parC8 @ Sligo 12/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR - · 2m1f166y Goo 15812/05C8C8 @ Ballinrobe 21/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR - · 2m1f89y Gd 158C8 @ Kilbeggan 08/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 2m Gd 1588/08C8C8 @ Kilbeggan 21/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 100 · 2m Goo 158 · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 100 parC8 @ Kilbeggan 03/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 104 · 2m Goo 158 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 104 par3/09C8OR 104projClass-projected finish: 1st of 21
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Kilbeggan?1st1st0
2026-08-21Kilbeggan?3rd3rd0
2026-08-08Kilbeggan?2nd2nd0
2026-07-21Ballinrobe?4th4th0
2026-05-12Sligo?5th5th0
2025-09-29Roscommon?0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/052/088/083/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 2195% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength76%

Delivery trend -0.8% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 21.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/05/20253rd12/137%33%-0.04
30/05/20252nd16/116%86%+0.70
21/06/20253rd5/287%60%-0.27
02/08/202514th16/116%24%+0.08
12/05/20265th7/282%71%-0.10
21/07/20264th3/184%75%-0.09
08/08/20262nd2/189%90%+0.01
21/08/20263rd11/486%83%-0.02
03/09/20261st11/271%100%+0.29