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8

Kevin's Pride

7yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 114

Listowel · Behans Horseshoe Bar, Restaurant & Townhouse Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f

#8

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair hurdler and ran to a similar level on second time of asking over fences when fourth of 6 in maiden at Kilbeggan (25f, good) in July. Ran poorly in first-time blinkers last time and now reverts to the smaller obstacles for handicap debut with headgear discarded.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C9.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Carlisle 19/11/2024 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 2m3f218y Sft 15819/1143 @ Bangor-on-Dee 13/12/2024 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 2m3f123y Sft 159C8 @ Limerick 01/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR - · 3m Goo 1661/04C84 @ Perth 23/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 115 · 2m4f35y GS 160 · below its mark23/04/2025 · OR 115 parC8 @ Cork 12/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 114 · 2m4f100y Goo 164 · beat its mark12/10/2025 · OR 114 par12/10C8OR 114BHA119 @ Wexford 17/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 119 · 3m1f Sft 166 · below its mark17/03/2026 · OR 119 parBHA116 @ Down Royal 04/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 116 · 3m Gd 164 · below its mark04/05/2026 · OR 116 par4/05116OR 116BHA119 @ Kilbeggan 10/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 119 · 3m1f80y Goo 166 · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 119 parBHA119 @ Downpatrick 31/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 119 · 2m3f100y Gd 166 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 119 par31/08119OR 119projClass-projected finish: 18th of 21
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31DownpatrickBHA1196th6th0
2026-07-10KilbegganBHA1194th4th0
2026-05-04Down RoyalBHA1165th5th0
2026-03-17WexfordBHA1194th4th0
2025-10-12Cork?1st1st0
2025-04-23Perth42nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/1123/044/0531/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 2125% of fieldRange 21-21 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -7.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 16th of 21. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/11/20242nd6/492%89%-0.03
13/12/20242nd1/297%89%-0.08
01/04/20252nd2/189%92%+0.03
23/04/20252nd5/696%89%-0.07
12/10/20251st8/1196%100%+0.04
17/03/20264th15/890%0%-0.90
04/05/20265th13/266%20%-0.46
10/07/20264th10/382%40%-0.42
31/08/20266th15/261%17%-0.44