IvyArcIvyArc
5

Lisnagar Fortune

8yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 116

Listowel · Behans Horseshoe Bar, Restaurant & Townhouse Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f

#7

Rank

Odds

100/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★ Timeform

Commentary

One-time fairly useful hurdler/chaser for Willie Mullins who has made no impact in 3 outings for current connections.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Punchestown 14/01/2024 · Pos 1st of 22 · OR - · 2m157y Sft 16614/01C8C0 @ Fairyhouse 11/01/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 2m1f50y Sft 166C0 @ Gowran Park 15/02/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 2m4f Sft 16615/02C?C0 @ Leopardstown 03/03/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 2m1f Yie 166BHA126 @ Wexford 04/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 126 · 2m Yie 166 · below its mark04/04/2025 · OR 126 par4/04126OR 1261 @ Punchestown 02/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR 125 · 2m4f55y Yie 148 · beat its mark02/05/2025 · OR 125 parBHA127 @ Punchestown 08/06/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 127 · 2m4f55y Goo 157 · below its mark08/06/2025 · OR 127 par8/06127OR 1271 @ Gowran Park 14/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 142 · 2m Hvy 155 · below its mark14/02/2026 · OR 142 parBHA123 @ Roscommon 08/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 123 · 2m4f Yie 162 · below its mark08/06/2026 · OR 123 par8/06123OR 123projClass-projected finish: 21st of 21
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-04BellewstownBHA1200
2026-06-08RoscommonBHA1238th8th0
2026-02-14Gowran Park17th7th0
2025-06-08PunchestownBHA1278th8th0
2025-05-02Punchestown13rd3rd0
2025-04-04WexfordBHA1266th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/013/038/068/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 2140% of fieldRange 16-21 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -2.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 21. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/01/20241st10/1195%100%+0.05
11/01/202510th10/147%18%-0.29
15/02/20258th16/116%30%+0.14
03/03/20252nd11/271%83%+0.12
04/04/20256th11/142%29%-0.14
02/05/20253rd15/261%88%+0.28
08/06/20258th2/189%0%-0.89
14/02/20267th150/10%0%0.00
08/06/20268th16/116%13%-0.03