21
Mags Nelson
7yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 106
Listowel · Behans Horseshoe Bar, Restaurant & Townhouse Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f
#3
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-29 | Roscommon | BHA110 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Killarney | BHA110 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-08-05 | Roscommon | BHA102 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-06-10 | Sligo | BHA102 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-05-30 | Tramore | BHA95 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-05-10 | Cork | BHA95 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 2170% of fieldRange 21-21 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -9.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 21. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/03/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 03/04/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 22/04/2025 | 13th | 33/1 | 0% | 48% | +0.48 |
| 10/05/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 30/05/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 10/06/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 05/08/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 23/08/2025 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 36% | -0.35 |
| 29/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 78% | +0.07 |