13
Moylussa
7yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 110
Listowel · Behans Horseshoe Bar, Restaurant & Townhouse Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f
#9
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Killarney | BHA109 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Roscommon | BHA109 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Ballinrobe | BHA107 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Punchestown | BHA108 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Cork | BHA107 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-03 | Fairyhouse | BHA109 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 2175% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength85%
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 21.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/01/2025 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 02/03/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 94% | +0.67 |
| 11/01/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 03/02/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 44% | -0.11 |
| 19/03/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 82% | +0.46 |
| 28/04/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 74% | +0.58 |
| 26/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 08/06/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 85% | +0.19 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |