16
Pakens Rock
13yo Gelding · 11-0 · OR 108
Listowel · Behans Horseshoe Bar, Restaurant & Townhouse Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f
#15
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C11.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | Killarney | BHA105 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-25 | Kilbeggan | BHA110 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-06-16 | Kilbeggan | BHA113 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-05-26 | Ballinrobe | BHA114 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-04-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA110 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-04-11 | Ballinrobe | BHA114 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 2135% of fieldRange 6-21 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength26%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 21. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2024 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 26/07/2024 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 13/03/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 11/04/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 24/04/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 26/05/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 16/06/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 25/07/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |
| 05/10/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |